November 30, 2023

From multiple sources, there are six key points that help us understand the future after the war.

1. In Israel, there is a growing realization that Hamas cannot be annihilated and the goal is to weaken its military control and resources to prevent a resurgence. The question is whether this is achievable or if the best case scenario is to eliminate Hamas’s rule and give someone else a chance.

2. Northern Gaza has been heavily damaged and will require significant reconstruction due to the destruction of structures and infrastructure.

3. Calls to eliminate Hamas Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar have quieted down as Israel may need him for a deal over hostages, leading to a delay in targeting him.

4. There is a difference in priorities between Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and War ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot regarding the balance between destroying Hamas and saving hostages.

5. Israel wants to avoid occupying Gaza and is seeking international involvement in its post-war rebuilding, but is not interested in the PA’s involvement and faces resistance from Arab countries.

6. Restoring deterrence against Hezbollah in the North is a critical concern, with hopes that the Gaza invasion will help restore deterrence, but there are concerns about Hezbollah’s increasing threat.

Overall, the future after the war remains uncertain with many diplomatic, military, and humanitarian challenges to address.